Sunday, October 25, 2009

Probability 1

Probability
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Two ways of looking at probability are:

1) Repeated experiments possible [Frequency Test]
Perform an experiment repeatedly and identify wht percent of times the experiment has
behaved the way u want it to behave.
Example: Flipping a coin hundred times to know the probability of occurrence of heads.

2) Repeated experiments not possible
Based on the data that you have, how strongly you believe that the experiment will behave
the way you want it to behave.
Example: What are the chances that its going to rain today.


Definition of Probability
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P(x) = number of events in which x is true
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total number of events or all possible outcomes of an event or all possible circumstances of an event.

In case of flipping a coin, the total number of circumstances or outcome of flipping a coin is 2, it can be either heads or tails.

assuming that the occurence of all the events are equally probable, i.e no single event should occur more number of times than other events.


Examples:
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P(Occurence of Head on flipping a coin) = 1 / 2 = 50%

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